graph, Sacramento Forecast Project graph,
Forecasts on the web since July, 1996
Last Completed Forecast:
January, 2013
Next Revision:
July, 2013
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Forecasts by Variable
Employment Variables
      Household Survey
[u]  Civilian Labor Force
[u]  Number Employed
[u]  Unemployment Rate
      Establishment Survey
[u]  Total Number of Jobs
[u]  Construction Jobs
[u]  Manufacturing Jobs
[u]  Government Jobs
Taxable Sales
[u]  Total Taxable Sales
Transportation
[u]  Air Passengers
[u]  Air Freight
Residential Construction
[u]  Building Permits





[n] = not updated
[p] = partial update
[u] = updated
  The geographic coverage for the areas are accessable from the list on the right side of the page.   The list on the left of this page contains most of the variables that are tracked for the forecasts. I update these pages as a byproduct of the geographic coverage.
  Finally, to track the update progress, flags for each of the pages show the status of each forecast. Just a simple coding with [u] meaning the page is updated, [p] meaning the page is partially updated, and [n] meaning I haven't gotten to the page yet.

21Feb13:    I presented the forecast to the Sacramento Chapter of the Construction Financial Management Association today - here's the slideshow.

11Feb13: The January, 2013 update is complete.
10Feb13: The forecasts for the geographic entities (the right side of the page) are complete, just the variable comparisons to update.
31Jan13: The Sacramento Region is updated. On to the other counties.
29Jan13: The Census Bureau released the Building Permit data for December yesterday so I updated ElDorado, Placer, Sacramento, Sutter, Yolo and Yuba Counties as well as the Sacramento MSA. The update had little impact except for the 180 unit apartment complex that was approved in Sacramento County in December - that kicked the 2012 numbers a little, but did not change the direction of the 2013 forecasts. Oh, and I also finished the Yuba City CEA/MSA.
28Jan13:    Sutter and Yuba Counties are updated, so now it's on to the MSA itself.
26Jan13:    The update for Sacramento MSA is complete. now it's on to the region.
24Jan13:    Sacramento and Yolo Counties are updated, so now it's on to the MSA itself.
23Jan13:    I'm working on the Sacramento MSA, starting with ElDorado and Placer Counties.
21Jan13:    I've started the update with the State of California.
11Jan13:    The January 2013 update begins. It is going to be interesting to see how much, if any, changes to the 2013 forecasts will result from the November elections - interesting times!.


17Aug12:    The July 2012 update is complete.
9Aug12:    The Counties are all updated, now I just have to do some aggreation for the Economic Areas, try and do the State and the variable comparisons. I expect that I will finish the update somewhere around August 17th.
1Aug12:    It's August 1st and I'm about halfway through the update of the Counties. Lots of other things going on that slowed the update effort. I expect that I will finish the update somewhere around August 10th.
6Jul12:    The release of the June employment numbers by the Buearu of Labor Statistics marks the start of reporting for the first six months of 2012 and the beginning of my update.

17Feb12:    I presented the forecast to the Sacramento Chapter of the Construction Financial Management Association today - here's the slideshow.
12Feb13:    The January update is complete including the Forecasts by Variable, plus I've redone the passenger and air-freight foreasts for the Sacramento MSA to include all of the 2011 data.
08Feb12:    The January update continues with Amador, Butte, Colusa, El Dorado, Glenn, Nevada, Placer, Sacramento, Sutter, Yolo, Yuba Counties in California and Douglas County/Gardnerville Ranchos MSA in Nevada, the Butte/Glenn CEA, the Chico/Paradise MSA, the Colusa/Yolo CEA, the Sacramento (4 county) MSA, the Sacramento CEA, the Truckee-Grass Valley MSA, the Yuba City MSA/CEA, the Sacramento CSA, the Sacramento Region, the Sacramento Economic Area and the US forecast completed.
15Jan12:    The January update begins. In August I said that "2012 looks a lot like 2011 for better or worse," and as I begin the update, I'm expecting that view to continue. As an appetizer, I added a thirty-year old video clip that sort of summarizes the forecast for 1982, starring then Channel 40 News Anchor Pete Wilson and a much younger me.

12Aug11:    The July update is complete. It isn't pretty but it is done. As of now, 2012 looks a lot like 2011 for better or worse.
11Aug11:    Add United States to the updated list and that completes the geographic update (the right column). I should get the "variable comparisons" out tomorrow.
10Aug11:    Add California to the updated list. I expect to get the revised US forecast and the "variable comparisons" out tomorrow ... should be done by Friday.
9Aug11:    Add the Sacramento Economic Area to the updated list.
8Aug11:    Add Amador County, the Sacramento CEA and the Sacramento Region to the updated list.
7Aug11:    Add the Nevada County/Truckee-Grass Valley MSA and the Sacramento CSA to the updated list.
6Aug11:    Add the Sacramento MSA to the updated list.
5Aug11:    Add Butte and Glenn Counties, the Chico-Paradise MSA and the Butte-Glenn and the Colusa-Yolo CEA's to the updated list.
4Aug11:    Add the Yuba City CEA/MSA to the updated list.
3Aug11:    Add three more counties to the completed list: Sacramento, Sutter and Yuba Counties.
1Aug11:    Add three more counties to the completed list: Colusa, El Dorado and Placer Counties.
31Jul11:    The State of Nevada reports taxable sales in a much more timely manner than the California Board of Equalization so I've started the July revise with the Douglas County, Nevada/Gardnerville Ranchos MSA as well as Yolo County.

30Jul11:    The word to describe this last June and July is FRUSTRATION and it has nothing to do with the economic climate that these pages attempt to describe. The best I can say is the problems appear to be over and the July update can begin - finally! My current schedule is to have the update completed by August 10th, or so.

One word of caution - the "Fountain Predictor" has experienced a situation that requires some re-valuation and I've removed it from the pages for the time being.



Forecasts by Area
United States[u]
California[u]
Sacramento Economic Area[u]
Sacramento Region[u]
Butte-Glenn CEA[u]
Colusa-Yolo CEA[u]
Sacramento CEA[u]
Sutter-Yuba CEA[u]
Combined Metropolitan Areas
    Sacramento CSA[u]
Metropolitan Areas
    Chico-Paradise MSA[u]
    Sacramento MSA[u]
    Yuba City MSA[u]
Micropolitan Areas
    Truckee-Grass Valley MSA[u]
    Gardnerville Ranchos MSA[u]
California Counties
Amador County[u]
Butte County[u]
Colusa County[u]
El Dorado County[u]
Glenn County[u]
Nevada County[u]
Placer County[u]
Sacramento County[u]
Sutter County[u]
Yolo County[u]
Yuba County[u]
Nevada Counties
Douglas County[u]
Arthur N. Jensen, Emeritus Professor of Marketing
e-mail to: a.jensen@comcast.net
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