California State University, Sacramento Government Employment in Sacramento MSA Sacramento Forecast Project
Total | Federal | State | State % State | Local | back to Sacramento MSA revised January, 2005

Employment in government entities has long been a mainstay of the Sacramento Metropolitan Statistical Area. The continuing effort to diversify the employment base has been somewhat effective. The effort, during the 1990's, was both voluntary, through the activities of organizations like the Sacramento Area Commerce and Trade Organization (SACTO), and involuntary, from the closure of the three military bases in the Sacramento PMSA. These efforts have led to the government employment sector's share of the total employment in the Sacramento MSA declining from around 30% to less than 25%. The current regional weakness in job growth has definitely been hurt by the decline in federal and, to a much larger extent, state government jobs as well as weakened growth in local government jobs, pushing the percentage down below the 24% mark (23.94%) in August of 2004.
The number of government sector jobs peaked in 2002, with an annual average of 194,700 jobs in the three government sectors. Since then it has been a down hill slide to an forecast annual average (based on actual results through December) of 186,500 jobs in 2005. The main contributor, as is illustrated below, to the decline has been state government employment and continued weakness in the federal government jobs sector; as well as weakened growth in the local sector. The forecast for 2005 is for a slower decline of 500 jobs in the annual average - some ray of hope.
The federal sector of government employment in the Sacramento PMSA was the major force in reducing the area's dependence on government jobs. From a high of 30,000 federal jobs in 1990 to the current low of around 9,000 jobs, approximately 21,000 jobs were lost. The major factor was the closure of the three military bases. The decline has basically bottomed at around an annual average of 9,300 to 9,000 jobs, the forecast for 2005.
The state sector of government employment in the Sacramento PMSA steadily increased during the 1990's in an obvious stair step fashion with the increases coming in 1994, in 1998 and in 2001. The latest step resulted in an increase to 87,400 State Government jobs in the Sacramento PMSA in 2002 - the peak year. The current Budget Crisis has resulted in significant job reduction - 2,900 jobs in 2003 and 4,800 jobs in 2004. The 2005 forecast indicates a slowing decline to an optimistic job loss of only 300 for the year.
After fluctuating around the 18.5% level for the last half of the 1990's and 2000, the Sacramento PMSA's share of California's state government jobs has dropped consistently from the August, 2001 high of 19.34% to the October, 2004 level of 16.96%. What is this telling us? - The decline in state government jobs is hitting the Sacramento PMSA market harder than the state as a whole - the job reduction is focused more on the central government level, not the legislative districts.
The local government sector of government employment for the Sacramento PMSA was the source of very consistent growth. Close to 35,000 jobs were added to the sector from 1990 to the current time, an increase of almost 50%. The growth since 2002, however, has been almost nonexistent (300 jobs in 2003 and 100 jobs in 2004). The forecast for 2005 (based on actual results through December) is for another slow 100 jobs increase, bringing the annual average to 98,000.
Back to Sacramento MSA
Update: January, 2005
Arthur N. Jensen, Emeritus Professor of Marketing
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College of Business Administration
California State University, Sacramento

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